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2021 NFL midseason report — What we’ve learned, questions and record projections for all 32 teams

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With nine weeks of NFL games in the books, we are officially at the midway point of the first 18-week season.

The Arizona Cardinals (8-1) have the best record in the league and sit atop the NFC, with the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys right behind them with two losses.

Parity seems to be the theme in the AFC, where the Tennessee Titans (7-2) and Baltimore Ravens (6-2) are at the top, but nine other teams are within two games in the loss column.

As we look ahead to the second half of the season, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to give their thoughts on what we know — and don’t know — about their teams at the midseason mark.

Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

AFC EAST

What we know: The Bills were making a solid case as the best team in the AFC, but then the loss at Jacksonville happened. This remains a good football team with some areas to correct. Quarterback Josh Allen and his many weapons have not flashed like they did earlier in the season due to offensive line struggles and issues in the running game. The Bills, however, have a high ceiling and should improve when players return from injury. The defense is a step ahead of last season’s team and can give plenty of teams trouble.

What we don’t know yet: Will the loss to the Jaguars be the exception and not a sign of bad things to come? The question going into Jacksonville was whether this team would take a step forward and go further than last season, when they lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. The expectations are sky high, and major changes will need to be made going forward if this version of the Bills has an opportunity to be the first to go to the Super Bowl since the 1993 season.

Final record prediction: 12-5. There will be a couple more stumbling blocks along the way against some top opponents on the Bills’ schedule, but Buffalo will finish among the conference’s best record. — Alaina Getzenberg


What we know: The Dolphins are not the playoff team most thought they would be. After winning 10 games in 2020, Miami seemed poised to take the next step and possibly challenge the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East division title. But this defense (while improved over the past two weeks) dramatically regressed from last season, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been healthy enough to develop, and a supposedly improved offensive line has been among the league’s worst. The Dolphins stopped a seven-game losing streak in Week 9, but at 2-7, this season is all but over.

What we don’t know yet: What this offense looks like at full strength. receiver DeVante Parker and Tagovailoa have each missed four games, receiver William Fuller V and guard Michael Deiter have each missed six. Miami has yet to play a single snap with Parker, Fuller, Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle all on the field, as this new-look offense has yet to get off the ground. Tagovailoa is certainly more willing to push the ball downfield than he was as a rookie, but he hasn’t had much time nor the receivers to do so. We still don’t know what this offense’s ceiling is, but the best ability is availability, after all, so we just might be seeing it.

Final record prediction: 5-12. Beating the Texans revitalized my faith in the Dolphins’ ability to beat bad teams, which there are enough of on their remaining schedule to squeak out a respectable finish to the season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques


What we know: They are a mentally and physically tough team that has been in every game, and the Pats are bringing along rookie quarterback Mac Jones masterfully as he learns on the job. Their early-season struggles were a result of sloppy ball security and failure to come up with the big play in the critical situation, but that has changed over the past few weeks during a three-game winning streak that has helped turn their season around. Depth in the defensive backfield might ultimately prove to be an Achilles’ heel, but for now, they are getting the most out of what they have.

What we don’t know yet: Is the ceiling for the Jones-led offense high enough to make a run into the playoffs? Jones has, by all accounts, performed well through the first nine games of his rookie season. There is a reason no rookie QB has ever led his team to the Super Bowl, so while Jones shows promise, he also serves up a reminder of his youth at times with mistakes. Meanwhile, on defense, the secondary is thinner than desired and is one injury away from a potentially significant drop-off.

Final record prediction: 10-7. Two games remaining against the AFC East-leading Bills, and a home date against the surging Titans, highlight some notable hurdles ahead for the Patriots to clear. — Mike Reiss


What we know: The Jets are who we thought they’d be: wildly inconsistent and prone to breakdowns on both sides of the ball, but also capable of producing an occasional spark that provides a glimpse into the future. They’re the youngest team in the league, and they’re playing like it. They showed promise in beating two good teams at home, the Titans and Bengals, but suffered three ugly road losses in which they were outscored 125-43. Statistically, it’s the worst defense in franchise history. You knew there would be growing pains, but not to this degree, especially with a defensive-minded head coach in Robert Saleh. The offense has perked up after a brutal start. The Jets need more of that in all areas — improvement.

What we don’t know yet: When will rookie QB Zach Wilson be ready to make a difference? He hasn’t played up to his draft status (No. 2 overall) — only one impressive performance in six starts. In retrospect, he wasn’t ready to be a Day 1 starter. The talent is obvious, but he’s extremely raw, still learning to play within the structure of the offense. Was it a coincidence the offense came to life under injury replacement Mike White? Hardly. Wilson’s development is the key to the second half of the season. LT Mekhi Becton‘s anticipated return from knee surgery is another big storyline, along with the progress of their rookie class. They have six rookies with at least 250 snaps.

Final record prediction: 5-12. They have four games against three of the worst teams — Dolphins (twice), Texans and Jaguars. That’ll help. — Rich Cimini

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AFC NORTH

What we know: The Ravens are a championship contender as long as they have quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is a one-man wrecking crew. Baltimore has 14 players on injured reserve, including five starters who are out for the season, and the Ravens have the second-best record in the AFC because of Jackson’s heroics. He has led three comebacks from double-digit deficits because he is now as dangerous a passer as he is as a runner. Jackson is the second quarterback since the 1970 merger to rank in the top 10 in both passing and rushing at any point in Week 9 or later (Randall Cunningham was the other in 1990).

What we don’t know yet: How good or bad is this defense? The Ravens can look like the worst defense in the NFL at times, when they are allowing big plays and struggle at tackling. Baltimore has given up more than 30 points in half of its games this season. Then there are times when the Ravens look like their defenses of old. Baltimore has held three teams to 17 or fewer points, including shutting down Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The challenge is only heightened going forward after Baltimore lost its second starter in the secondary to a season-ending injury; safety DeShon Elliott tore his pectoral and biceps muscles in Sunday’s overtime win over the Vikings.

Final record prediction: 12-5. The toughest part of the schedule looms for the Ravens, who won’t face a team with a losing record over the final seven weeks of the season. — Jamison Hensley


What we know: Both the offense and defense have had moments of brilliance through the first seven weeks. Quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase have been electric at times, while the defense flummoxed the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson. But the lack of an offensive rhythm and two woeful defensive outings before the off week are signs of the inconsistency the Bengals must solve.

What we don’t know yet: Has the Bengals’ defense really turned the corner? Through the first seven weeks, Cincinnati statistically had one of the best defenses in the NFL, but it felt as if there were still some bad habits lurking beneath the surface. Indeed, over the past two games, the Bengals have resembled the porous units of old, featuring a stretch of eight true opponent drives (those not at the end of a half) that resulted in points. There will be a lot of pressure on defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and his unit in the final nine games.

Final record prediction: 8-9. The Bengals get back to form after their off week, but the end of the season proves to be as daunting as advertised. — Ben Baby


What we know: That the Browns are probably better off without wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. That was on full display Sunday in a 41-16 win in Cincinnati, where, for the first time this season, the Browns resembled the team that surged into the playoffs last season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield played his sharpest game of the season, spreading the ball around, while the running game got going again behind Nick Chubb. Beckham might still be a dynamic playmaker, but he was never a fit for Mayfield or coach Kevin Stefanski’s power-running scheme.

What we don’t know yet: Whether the Browns can build off of Sunday’s win and rekindle their 2020 formula. They certainly had it working in Cincinnati. The power running game. The opportunistic defense. The best version of Mayfield, who was as crisp and accurate as he’d been all season. Cleveland immediately took off after Beckham’s season-ending injury in Cincinnati in Week 7 of last season. But this time around, the schedule will be much tougher down the stretch, featuring a more competitive AFC North. Time will tell if Sunday’s performance was a blip or who the Browns will be moving forward.

Final record prediction: 10-7. Cleveland’s defense is better than last season, and Cleveland’s offense behind Mayfield appears to have found itself at the right time once again. — Jake Trotter


What we know: The Steelers will go as far as the offensive line takes them. Beginning with the loss at Green Bay, the offensive line started to jell, and that led to a better, more balanced offense. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the same escape artist gunslinger he used to be, but the offensive line can maximize his current abilities by keeping him upright and buying him time to make his throws. The unit regressed against the Bears, allowing four sacks, but overall it’s trending in the right direction. More evidence of that: running back Najee Harris has touchdowns in three of the past four games and his first 100-yard rushing game.

What we don’t know yet: What is this team’s identity? Midway through the season, the Steelers don’t have consistent calling cards on either side of the ball. Offensively, the team wants to be balanced, but going forward, that will largely depend on the health of Harris and the 39-year-old Roethlisberger. Defensively, this team hasn’t always been the juggernaut they appeared to be in the Week 1 win against the Buffalo Bills. Yes, T.J. Watt is still T.J. Watt, and Cameron Heyward is having a stellar season, but the turnovers and splash plays are few and far between. And in the kicking game, while Chris Boswell is nearly automatic, punter Pressley Harvin III is inconsistent and punt returner Ray-Ray McCloud had a costly fumble late in the win against the Bears.

Final record prediction: 9-8. The Steelers turned a 1-3 start into 5-3 at the midway point, but the schedule only gets tougher, and the team’s glaring questions still loom large. — Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH

What we know: The Texans have one win and are going through a rebuild. But it’s clear at the midway point that Houston doesn’t have cornerstone talent to build around. General manager Nick Caserio reshaped the roster after he took over in January, signing the majority of players to one- or two-year deals. It looks like he’ll be doing that again this offseason, as there are few players on expiring contracts who make sense to bring back on long-term deals. The difference is Caserio will have more draft capital in 2022. Even before the Texans trade quarterback Deshaun Watson, Houston will have its own first-round pick for the first time in three years.

What we don’t know yet: The future of the Texans’ quarterback situation. The only thing Houston seems to know for certain is quarterback Deshaun Watson will not play for the franchise again. Since the trade deadline passed with no deal, the Texans will try to trade him during the offseason. Tyrod Taylor, who looked sharp in the first six quarters he played before injuring his left hamstring in Week 2, struggled in his return Sunday, throwing three interceptions. Houston didn’t get much better quarterback play from rookie third-round pick Davis Mills in Taylor’s absence, so the questions surrounding the position continue. Even without trading Watson for first-round picks, the Texans’ own first-round pick is trending toward being in the top three. Will Houston opt to use that pick on a player they hope will be their franchise quarterback or decide whether a player currently on their roster is a better option for next season?

Final record prediction: 2-15. After a loss to Miami to end the first half of the season, Houston’s best bet (or worst, considering draft implications) to get its second win probably comes against the New York Jets at home or in Jacksonville in Week 15. — Sarah Barshop


What we know: The Colts would have a winning record if they had a “killer instinct.” Quarterback Carson Wentz said they lacked it after blowing a 19-point lead in the final 18 minutes against Baltimore in Week 5. Cornerback Kenny Moore II said it again after they squandered a 14-point lead in their overtime loss to Tennessee in Week 8. The Colts have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. They can’t use youth as an excuse, either, because they have a relatively experienced roster. The Colts can’t be considered a playoff-caliber team until they start beating postseason contenders.

What we don’t know yet: If the Colts will ever have a pass rush. They used their first two draft picks on defensive ends Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. The two have combined for zero sacks (Odeyingbo missed the first seven games with an Achilles injury) and the Colts have 17 sacks for the season. To put that into perspective, the Colts have forced more turnovers (18) than sacks. Colts general manager Chris Ballard has been successful with some picks in the draft. However, he can’t say that when it comes to selecting pass-rushers, because they’re still looking for their next Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney on the edges.

Final record prediction: 9-8. It’s hard to be a playoff team if you can’t beat playoff-caliber teams. — Mike Wells


What we know: The offense has to work for everything it gets — and it’s not getting much. The Jaguars are averaging 16.5 points per game (30th) and 332.9 yards per game (23rd). They’ve also managed eight explosive plays (a rush of 20 or more yards or a reception of 30 or more yards). Trevor Lawrence is making progress, but he’s dealing with injuries on the offensive line and a group of receivers that is among the bottom third in the NFL in production. It’s obvious the Jaguars need to get Lawrence some help, but it’s not going to come until the offseason, so they’ll have to muddle their way through the second half of the season.

What we don’t know yet: Is Urban Meyer going to work out as an NFL coach? The biggest on-field red flag was the way the team performed in the opener and after the bye week. The Jaguars looked unprepared, sloppy and confused. They also had trouble lining up or getting the correct number of players on the field — and they had 26 penalties combined in those two games and have averaged 6.5 penalties in the other six games. Those issues — with the possible exception of penalties — are related to coaching, and that falls squarely at Meyer’s feet.

Final record prediction: 4-13. Can’t expect the defense to perform every week the way it did against the Bills, but Houston and the Jets are the two most winnable games remaining. — Mike DiRocco


What we know: The Titans are gradually peaking on offense and defense. After starting off slowly from a turnovers perspective, Tennessee’s defense has generated 11 turnovers in their past six games. Safety Kevin Byard is responsible for five of them, and he returned a fumble for a touchdown in Week 4 and an interception for a touchdown in Week 9. Harold Landry‘s evolution into a top-level pass-rusher, as shown by his nine sacks this season, has bolstered the defense. The offense has scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and wide receiver A.J. Brown catching fire. But with league-leading running back Derrick Henry having season-ending foot surgery last week, the defense will have to continue to step up for the AFC’s top team in the standings.

What we don’t know yet: Losing Henry to a foot injury will be the biggest test Tennessee has faced. The Titans will look to a committee approach that consists of Adrian Peterson, D’Onta Foreman and Jeremy McNichols to handle the rushing duties. Although an elite rushing attack isn’t mandatory for play-action to work, having Henry in the backfield made it more deadly. It was Henry who was called upon when they needed a game-changing play. The Titans need to find out who their clutch player will be on offense.

Final record prediction: 13-4. The Titans have completed the toughest portion of their schedule and have games primarily against teams without winning records. — Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

What we know: The Broncos can be part of the playoff conversation if they commit to playing offense with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center about half the time and keep the run game relevant. If they don’t, they could be picking in the top 10 in 2022. They’re 5-0 in games when Bridgewater has spent 50% of his time under center but 0-4 when they have leaned on personnel groupings with him in the shotgun more than 70% of the time. They do everything better, including throw the ball down the field, when Bridgewater is playing and play-action is on the table.

What we don’t know yet: Whether they can survive a growing list of injuries. They played four rookies on defense in each of their past two wins. Between injured reserve, COVID-19 reserve and players injured during Sunday’s game, the Broncos were down 13 starters by the end of Week 9. They’ve shown some grit, but they will have to continue to have quality play from their rookie class, as well as some backups (especially on the offensive line) if they are going to keep themselves in the hunt over the next few weeks.

Final record prediction: 9-8. They can finish better if they find the level of maturity and attention to detail they showed in Dallas, or they can finish far worse if they show the across-the-board stumbles they did in the Oct. 17 loss to the Raiders. — Jeff Legwold


What we know: Their offensive problems run deep. They have 36 points in their past three games and are getting few of their signature big plays. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes not only hasn’t been enough to pull the Chiefs out of their slump but he has been part of the problem. Over the past five weeks, he’s been 28th in QBR, 29th in completion percentage and 31st in yards per attempt. The reason the Chiefs found a way to win three of those five games is that their defense has come to life. It will have to stay alive if the Chiefs are to make something of their season.

What we don’t know yet: Whether they are a playoff team. It has been easy to take that for granted with the Chiefs, who have reached the postseason in six straight seasons, the last five as AFC West champions. But these Chiefs are a team we don’t know, one that suddenly is playing decent defense (16 points per game allowed over their past four) but is mired in a deep slump on offense with Mahomes struggling like at no time in his career. Even with the Chiefs being a half-game out of the division lead, the road to a sixth consecutive title will be difficult. All of their remaining opponents are currently over .500.

Final record prediction: 9-8. The Chiefs have too many problems to realistically think they can play much better than .500 over the final eight games of a rugged finishing schedule. — Adam Teicher


What we know: Their offense can be elite and the defense is much improved. Quarterback Derek Carr is on pace for 5,450 passing yards and 28 TDs and is usually extremely accurate, but Sunday’s off performance at the Giants is cause for concern. As is the on-again, off-again rushing attack. Defensively, Yannick Ngakoue has two sacks in three of the Raiders’ past four games and is teaming quite nicely with bookend defensive end Maxx Crosby, who has five sacks himself. Pressure and coverage working hand in hand? Yes, what with veteran cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. playing at a level not seen in these parts since Nnamdi Asomugha was shutting down half the field.

What we don’t know yet: Was Sunday’s 23-16 loss in the Meadowlands a mere blip or a peek into the immediate future and another second-half collapse? Look, 6-4 and 6-3 starts the previous two seasons ended with records of 7-9 and 8-8. And after entering the bye week 5-2 with a very winnable game at New York up next, things looked up. But the Raiders were sluggish, especially Carr, who turned the ball over three times. Perhaps, in a football sense only, Las Vegas gets a pass, given the emotional roller-coaster it has been on the past month, with coach Jon Gruden’s resignation and former Raiders receiver Henry Ruggs III‘s tragic car crash that killed 23-year-old Tina Tintor and her dog. With the Chiefs up next, and in prime time, we’ll get a better sense.

Final record prediction: 9-8: Same prediction as entering the season, though this would be a bit of a downturn after that surprising 5-2 start. — Paul Gutierrez


What we know: We know they have a star in quarterback Justin Herbert. He struggled in two recent losses (18-of-35 passing for 223 yards and two interceptions against the Patriots in Week 8 and 22-of-39 for 195 yards and a pick against the Ravens in Week 6) but rose to the occasion against the Eagles on Sunday (32-of-38 for 356 yards and two touchdowns). That’s an 84.2% completion percentage, including 16-of-16 against the Eagles’ zone coverage, which is tied for the third-most completions without an incompletion against the zone since 2006. He also rushed for a TD against the Eagles. That performance showed that Herbert is the real deal.

What we don’t know yet: Defensively, they are decimated in the secondary, with cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr (concussion) and Michael Davis (hamstring) out and safety Alohi Gilman fighting an ankle injury. They’ve got all-everything safety Derwin James Jr., but the injuries don’t help a defense that is last in the NFL against the run (161.6 yards allowed per game). Getting tackle Justin Jones back was helpful, but the Chargers gave up 176 yards on the ground against the Eagles, the fifth game in which opponents gained at least 176 rushing yards. The Chargers will have to rely on Chris Harris Jr and Nasir Adderley, backups Tevaughn Campbell and Mark Webb Jr., and the newly signed Kiondre Thomas to plug the holes in the secondary and hope the run defense toughens up.

Final record prediction: 13-4. They are strong enough offensively to carry them to that lofty record if the defense can hold up. — Shelley Smith

NFC EAST

What we know: As disheartening as the 30-16 loss to Denver appears to be, the Cowboys are a legitimate contender. This team looks as talented as any since the 1990s Super Bowl teams, including the 2007 and 2016 teams that had home-field advantage in the playoffs and the 2014 team that could score on anybody and made it to the second round of the playoffs. Quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level. Running back Ezekiel Elliott looks like he did his first few years. Receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are difficult to contain, same with tight end Dalton Schultz. The offensive line is at the top of its game, provided left tackle Tyron Smith is healthy. The defense has performed better than anybody expected, and Micah Parsons is a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

What we don’t know yet: Let’s just say the Broncos’ loss was a one-off. Can they finish with the best record in the conference? The Jan. 2 meeting against the Arizona Cardinals could be the deciding game if they continue to win out. Games at Kansas City and New Orleans will be difficult, but the Cowboys have shown some mettle on the road, winning three straight after taking the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers to the end in the opener at Raymond James Stadium. Three straight road games in December will be a test. The offense is elite; the defense will be pushed by quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, David Carr and Kyler Murray, but they have mostly answered the bell this season.

Final record prediction: 12-5. Not many would have predicted 12-5 at the start of the season, but that appears realistic at the moment. Have we mentioned the loss to the Broncos yet? — Todd Archer


What we know: This isn’t a very good team. The offensive line remains problematic, questions about quarterback Daniel Jones persist and the defense underperformed for much of the first half of the season without any serious rush off the edges. But at least there’s with some hope that the team will be healthier and better down the stretch. The result is the Giants’ are a longshot — at best — to be a serious playoff contender. They are 3-6, which just so happens to be their best record through nine games since 2016. So maybe at least coach Joe Judge & Co. are making progress, albeit at a snail’s pace.

What we don’t know yet: What would this team look like with all its players healthy? That remains unknown because of injury. Also unknown: Is Jones a true franchise quarterback they can build around? No team has more games lost to injuries by their Week 1 starters than the Giants. Running back Saquon Barkley and wide receivers Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton have all missed at least three games. Rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney missed two. They have not played a game this season when all of them were at full strength or at the top of their game. Instead, it has been a mishmash of players around Jones.

Final record prediction: 7-10. The Giants should be healthier and better, and the schedule in the second half of the season is much softer. — Jordan Raanan


What we know: It’s a team in transition, led by a green coaching staff that has been slow to adapt. First-year coach Nick Sirianni has finally hit on the right offensive formula — featuring a heavy dose of the run coupled with a play-action pass game — but too much was placed on the shoulders of 23-year-old quarterback Jalen Hurts for the bulk of the first half. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, meanwhile, continues to lean on a soft, zone-heavy scheme that quality quarterbacks have routinely shredded. Five quarterbacks have completed 80-plus percent of their passes against the Eagles this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Philadelphia allowed six QBs to hit that completion rate between 1950-2020. It has been historically bad. The Eagles can look dominant against lesser opponents — see the blowout wins over the Falcons and Lions — but their inexperience and vulnerabilities are exploited by the better teams and quarterbacks in the league.

What we don’t know yet: Whether Hurts is the long-term answer. Sirianni offered some high praise of the second-year quarterback following Sunday’s 27-24 loss to Chargers, telling NBC that Hurts made plays in the game “that I don’t think any other quarterback in the NFL can make.” He entered this week ranked fifth in red zone passer rating (116.8) and with the seventh-most total yards (3,289) by a quarterback through his first 12 career games in NFL history. He has also been held below 200 passing yards in five of nine starts this season, tied with Justin Fields for most such starts this year, per ESPN Stats & Information. A lack of repetitive accuracy has been costly. The question is whether Hurts can develop that part of his game enough between now and the end of the season to keep management from spending its handsome draft capital on another signal-caller.

Final record prediction: 7-10. They have one of the easiest closing schedules in the league and should be able to finish on a semipositive note. — Tim McManus


What we know: Washington still needs a quarterback. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick had remained healthy, this likely would still be the case. Fitzpatrick, who turns 39 this month, was always viewed as a short-term option, of course. While some fans hoped Taylor Heinicke might be that guy, NFL evaluators always viewed him as a backup. If that’s all he is, it’s still quite a leap from being out of the league a year ago — and Washington needed to find a backup, too. He can help. But Washington needs to find its guy. Since 2018 — the year after Kirk Cousins left — Washington ranks last in the NFL with a total combined QBR of 36.8; it ranks 27th this season.

What we don’t know yet: Can the defense step up? At the end of last season, it was playing well and entered this season considered one of the best in the NFL. In hindsight, that was way too optimistic, because it has struggled most of the season. It’s not just because the unit is facing better quarterbacks than it did in 2020, either. It’s a multitude of sins, from underperforming players — veteran corner William Jackson III; second-year end Chase Young — to a struggling linebacker group to botched coverages and some questionable early personnel decisions and alignments. To feel good heading into 2022, Washington needs the defense, which has started to play better, to get right in the second half. Will it happen?

Final record prediction: 5-12. Washington returns some key players from injury in the second half, but hasn’t yet shown it can play a complete game, and the schedule remains difficult. — John Keim

NFC NORTH

What we know: The Bears struggle offensively. Chicago’s offense has been stuck in neutral for the past three years with no signs of sustained improvement. The Bears just find ways to lose games, plain and simple. The team is undisciplined when it comes to penalties — Chicago was flagged 12 times in Week 9’s Monday night loss at Pittsburgh. To make matters worse, the defense is showing major cracks. Long considered the strength of the team, the unit has been reeling the past two games without star pass-rusher Khalil Mack. The Bears are just good enough to keep it semi-interesting, but they are ultimately not good enough to compete for anything.

What we don’t know: How good quarterback Justin Fields can be. The rookie has shown glimpses of greatness. Fields’ 22-yard touchdown run vs. San Francisco was sensational, as was the go-ahead drive late in the Steelers game. In between, Fields has looked like a first-year quarterback attempting to find his way. And that’s alright. It will take time with Fields. The good news for the Bears is they have all the patience in the world. Either this current regime or the next one will be given the chance to properly develop the Ohio State product. Fields isn’t going anywhere in the immediate future.

Final record prediction: 7-10. The offense just isn’t good enough for a trip to the playoffs. — Jeff Dickerson


What we know: This is the fourth time the Lions have hit 0-8 since moving to Detroit in 1934, with it last happening in 2008 during the infamous 0-16 season. Although the 44-6 beatdown against the Eagles on Halloween didn’t reflect it, this team does play hard and can be competitive against tough teams, such as the Week 7 loss on the road against the Los Angeles Rams where they led 19-17 entering the fourth quarter. They also became the first team in NFL history to lose twice in a season on 50-plus-yard field goals on the final play of regulation, two games that could have gone the other way.

What we don’t know yet: If they will win a game. Although quarterback Jared Goff & Co. say they aren’t thinking about the possibility of an 0-17 season, at this point, it can’t be ruled out. The mood in the locker room was obviously down after the loss on Halloween, which on paper, appeared to be a winnable contest but turned into their worst loss of the year. There are a bunch of holes on this team, notably on an offense coach Dan Campbell described as “very anemic” after the Eagles loss. Finding more production from receivers such as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond would be a great start.

Final record prediction: 2-15. The Lions will continue to play hard, but the schedule doesn’t get any easier and they pretty much have to play perfectly to win a game based on their talent level. — Eric Woodyard


What we know: This team was rolling before quarterback Aaron Rodgers went on the COVID-19 list, and while coach Matt LaFleur said the Packers played with “championship-level effort and championship-level execution” on defense, this team is still all about Rodgers. As good as receiver Davante Adams is, his connection with Rodgers makes him that much better. It’s hard to argue with LaFleur’s success — he’s 33-8 in the regular season — but there still seems to be some holes, especially on special teams. To be sure, not many teams are dominant in all three phases, but the Packers have a significant weakness on special teams that doesn’t seem to be going away.

What we don’t know yet: What impact, if any, Rodgers’ COVID-19 absence — and the fallout from his explanation about being unvaccinated — will have on the rest of the season. There has been no indication any of Rodgers’ teammates have an issue with what transpired after his positive test. But if you’re a believer in momentum, then it’s worth wondering if him missing a game — even if it’s only one game — will derail the Packers.

Final record prediction: 13-4. The Packers have three road games left — and two of them are against struggling division foes in Detroit and Minnesota — so having five home games in the second half of the year gives them a good chance to keep rolling as long as they have Rodgers. — Rob Demovsky


What we know: The Vikings lead the league in one-score games (seven) and one-score losses (five), a byproduct of their inability to put away teams and be consistently aggressive. What’s abundantly clear through nine weeks is this Vikings offense is a shell of the one that ranked 11th in scoring and fourth in yards a season ago. Minnesota has the talent, from Dalvin Cook to Justin Jefferson to Adam Thielen, but it has an identity crisis. Is it a run-first team? Should it be more pass heavy with two top receivers? We know the Vikings spent a ton of money to fix their defense, and while it has flashed improvement, it’s not consistently strong enough to be a top-10 unit. What’s clear about the Vikings is the trajectory they’re on is not sustainable. With franchise-altering decisions on the line this offseason, from what to do with quarterback Kirk Cousins‘ contract and whether to retain coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman, change might be inevitable if this team fails to make the postseason.

What we don’t know yet: Before Week 9, the Vikings had the fewest rookie contributions of any team with one of the largest draft classes (11 players). A loss at Baltimore provided a glimpse of how big an impact these rookies can make when given the opportunity as Kene Nwangwu returned a kick 98 yards and Cam Bynum had an interception. But will those opportunities be consistent? Minnesota needs to capitalize on the speed and quickness of Nwangwu by incorporating him in the offense. It’s not likely third-string quarterback Kellen Mond plays this season, but the Vikings need to field the rest of their third-round picks (guard Wyatt Davis, defensive end Patrick Jones II and linebacker Chazz Surratt) to see if they’re capable of being a part of the plan going forward.

Final record prediction: 8-9. The Vikings will steal a game they’re not favored in — probably San Francisco or Pittsburgh — beat Detroit and split with their remaining division opponents, but it might not be enough to earn them the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. — Courtney Cronin

NFC SOUTH

What we know: Quarterback Matt Ryan has adjusted to coach Arthur Smith’s offense, completing 69.4% of his passes — on pace for the second-most accurate season of his career. He has continued to be the picture of consistency. Offensive surprise Cordarrelle Patterson, already with a career-high 737 all-purpose yards, might be the most improved player in the league. Cornerback A.J. Terrell continues to ascend, allowing opponents to complete fewer than 50% of passes against him. It has all made Atlanta a team that will fight and play to the end — three of its four wins have come on Younghoe Koo field goals.

What we don’t know yet: Will the pass rush ever come? It has been a slow go throughout the first half of the season — no individual player has more than two sacks — and if the Falcons remain unable to be consistent with their pressure, it’ll limit what defensive coordinator Dean Pees is able to fully do. Atlanta has lived on a thin balance this season, and that sustainability over a 17-game schedule — when a playoff bid could be possible — is a tough line for first-year coach Smith to walk. So far, it has happened, but tougher stretches of the schedule remain.

Final record prediction: 8-9. The Falcons continue to play stress-inducing games, leaving themselves right around .500. — Michael Rothstein


What we know: This, as coach Matt Rhule said, is a defensive team. That unit with six first-round picks and three second-round picks is built to win now. When everyone is healthy, they can pressure the quarterback into mistakes and keep games close enough to win. As recently acquired Pro Bowl corner Stephon Gilmore gets more acclimated into the system, they will only improve. This group, as Rhule said, also needs help from the offense. The Panthers have to run the ball and control the clock to keep the defense fresh. The problem is quarterback Sam Darnold, who was diagnosed Tuesday with an incomplete fracture of his right shoulder blade, keeps making too many mistakes for the offense or defense to be successful.

What we don’t know yet: Whether Darnold is good enough to consistently win when he returns after missing time because of the shoulder injury and running back Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy enough to be a factor. Darnold and McCaffrey together are 3-1 this season. The problem is McCaffrey (hamstring) has missed five games this season and 18 of 25 since Rhule took over. Darnold’s numbers were substantially better with McCaffrey until his three-interception performance in Week 9 against New England, but he was making poor decisions in four of the five games before the injury. That’s not a good outlook for the future this season or next. It might be time for Carolina to admit it made a mistake trading for the Jets’ former first-round pick and stick with backup P.J. Walker the rest of the year.

Final record prediction: 7-10. Losses to Philadelphia, Minnesota and the New York Giants will come back to haunt Carolina, as the final four games against Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans on the road will be tough to win. — David Newton


What we know: Well, this certainly changes by the week, doesn’t it? We know the Saints are a resilient team that has some of the best coaching/defense/run game/offensive line play in the NFL and can beat anyone when they’re on their game (see Packers, Buccaneers, Patriots). Unfortunately for them, they also had one of the league’s shakiest passing attacks even before quarterback Jameis Winston tore his ACL and we found out receiver Michael Thomas would miss the season. Their margin of error is paper-thin after all the key players they’ve lost to retirement, salary-cap cuts and injuries. But it will still be a disappointment if they miss the playoffs.

What we don’t know yet: Believe it or not, their Week 9 loss at home to the Falcons was almost somewhat encouraging? Quarterback Trevor Siemian looked like a competent pro for the second week in a row while nearly bringing them back to victory, and fellow quarterback Taysom Hill provided a spark in limited action. But that position obviously remains a question mark for a team that lost Drew Brees to retirement and Winston to injury. And they absolutely must find more reliable pass-catchers while continuing to lean heavily on their defense and running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

Final record prediction: 10-7. Don’t bother looking at the schedule since they usually win as underdogs and lose as favorites — but 5-4 down the stretch seems reasonable for a team that is healthier now than it was earlier this year. — Mike Triplett


What we know: Quarterback Tom Brady‘s comfort level with the offense has risen significantly in Year 2 with the Bucs. His 331.25 passing yards per game puts him on pace for the third-most in his 22nd season. His 3.13 touchdowns per game are second most, and the team is looking far more balanced, utilizing the ground game with running back Leonard Fournette. We’ve also seen the defense come up with some big-time performances despite being ravaged by injuries in the secondary. But they’ve also shown they can be self-destructive with penalties (11 against New Orleans for 99 yards in the 36-27 loss before the Week 9 bye). And even though they’re 6-2, home-field advantage in the postseason will be far more important with the return of fans, and the NFC has a logjam at the top, so the margin for error is slim.

What we don’t know yet: How many key players can get healthy for this second-half stretch? Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and Scotty Miller began their 21-day practice window to come back from injured reserve during the bye week. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is still in a walking boot. Tight end Rob Gronkowski played five snaps against the Saints because of back spasms and Arians said he probably shouldn’t have played any. After 20 games (including postseason) last year — miraculous considering his injury history — is this more of what we can expect from Gronk, or can the coaching staff strike the right balance of usage so he can return? Cornerback Richard Sherman was active against the Saints but did not play a snap because of a hamstring injury. How much juice will he have down the stretch?

Final record prediction: 14-3. The schedule makers were kind to Tampa Bay, with the Bucs’ next nine games featuring opponents that are a combined 28-40, and the Bucs get their toughest remaining foes — Buffalo and New Orleans — at home. — Jenna Laine

NFC WEST

What we know: This team is good. Like very good. It has an offense that can score 30 points and a defense that can get to the quarterback, force turnovers and keep teams out of the end zone. It’s a simple formula: Score a lot and keep the other team from scoring. But this year’s Cardinals have something this franchise hasn’t had in a while: A mix of elite talent, an MVP-caliber quarterback, veteran leadership, some luck and top-notch coaching. That’s the recipe for a team that could — and should — make a run to the Super Bowl.

What we don’t know yet: If they can keep this up down the stretch. We saw what happened to them a year ago, when they finished 3-6 after starting 5-2, playing with an injured Kyler Murray for the second half of the season. Murray is currently nursing a sprained left ankle, making this season eerily similar to last. But the Cardinals do seem smarter about handling Murray this year, as they held him out of their Week 9 win at the 49ers. Is this team capable of stepping over adversity as the playoffs approach or will it be tripped up? Only time will tell.

Final record prediction: 15-2. The Cardinals have a relatively easy final eight games but could slip once more, either against the Rams on Monday Night Football or against the Cowboys in Dallas. — Josh Weinfuss


What we know: The Rams have gone all-in to win a Super Bowl at owner Stan Kroenke’s $5 billion SoFi Stadium on Feb. 13. They’ve built a roster that features a top quarterback in Matthew Stafford, three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey and most recently added All-Pro outside linebacker Von Miller ahead of the trade deadline. The Rams can produce dominant performances on offense, like the one seen in a 34-24 victory over the Buccaneers in Week 3, and on defense they’ve proved to be capable of making game-changing (and game-saving) plays, such as in wins over the Colts, Seahawks and Lions.

What we don’t know yet: The Rams have superstars, but can they put it all together as a team? Inconsistency has been the biggest issue, whether that’s a slow start on offense or the inability to have all three phases perform great in the same outing. The Rams also must prove they can play from behind. When punched early by the Cardinals and Titans, the Rams were unable to match the physicality of both teams and therefore were unable to dig themselves out of early holes in both losses. Rams coach Sean McVay has a phenomenal record (46-0) when leading at the half. But when trailing? McVay is 6-17 and must prove that he can make halftime adjustments that can enable a comeback.

Final record prediction: 12-5. Watch for the Rams to finish second in the NFC West behind the Cardinals, one of three tough road matchups they have in the second half of the season (along with the Packers and Ravens). — Lindsey Thiry


What we know: The 49ers aren’t legitimate contenders. Entering the season, the Niners believed they had the pieces to not only return to the postseason but push to get back to the Super Bowl. It’s why they have stuck by veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo rather than handing the keys to rookie Trey Lance. They were wrong. The roster is full of players with lengthy injury histories, the reconfigured coaching staff has struggled to find its footing and the rookie class has offered little spark. Similar to 2019, this team was supposed to be built around a dominant pass rush and running game. It has neither and that team is looking more and more like an aberration.

What we don’t know yet: When Lance will take over for Garoppolo. It’s the question that has loomed and it’s not going away any time soon, especially as this season slips further away. This has always been a matter of when and not if, but coach Kyle Shanahan doesn’t want to throw Lance in until he believes he’s ready. Shanahan has said he won’t just play Lance to get him experience. If this season continues trending in the current direction, though, the only thing to be gained will be to get Lance up and running so he can be ready next season. The Shanahan-general manager John Lynch era is going to be defined by Lance’s development. It might end up being the only way this season avoids becoming a total loss.

Final record prediction: 7-10. This team hasn’t showed the consistency to string together enough victories to make the postseason or even to get to a winning record. — Nick Wagoner


What we know: They’ve dug themselves quite the hole. As a result, their chances of making the playoffs feel slimmer than they have around the midpoint since they drafted quarterback Russell Wilson in 2012. The reasons they’re in this unfamiliar position are obvious: Wilson missed three-plus games and their defense started historically slow again. But things are starting to look up: Backup quarterback Geno Smith helped snap a three-game losing streak when he led the Seahawks to a feel-good win over Jacksonville, their defense is settling in and Wilson has been cleared to return for Sunday’s game against the Packers, who could be without Aaron Rodgers.

What we don’t know yet: How good can the Seahawks be with a healthy Wilson and an improving defense? Because they haven’t had both going at the same time this year, with Wilson injuring his finger just as the defense was just starting to turn things around. The hope is that Wilson can play against the Packers. Facing reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, if he’s cleared to play after testing positive for COVID-19 last week, will be a litmus test of how far the Seahawks’ defense has come after showing improvement against lesser quarterbacks (an aging Ben Roethlisberger, an erratic Jameis Winston in bad weather and rookie Trevor Lawrence). If Wilson returns to his usual form and they continue to trend upward on the other side of the ball, the Seahawks will give themselves a chance to sneak into the NFC’s final playoff spot.

Final record prediction: 9-8. Wilson’s return and their improving defense will get the Seahawks to nine wins — including an upset of either the Rams or Cardinals — but that might not be enough for a playoff berth. — Brady Henderson

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The day John Madden met the turducken

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GLENN MISTICH TOOK slow, tiny steps toward the entrance to the Superdome. His hands shook inside the gloves he wore to carry a monstrous 17-pound dish covered in foil. His wife, Leah, and three young kids bounced alongside him.

A friend, New Orleans radio personality Bob DelGiorno, was also walking with him to the Rams-Saints game on Dec. 1, 1996. DelGiorno had been doing on-air Saints game days for long enough to have become friendly with John Madden, and he had told the former coach-turned-broadcasting legend about a delicious vegetarian’s nightmare for which Mistich had become well-known in the New Orleans area. It was a deboned duck stuffed inside a deboned chicken stuffed inside a deboned turkey, with a generous mix of cornbread and sausage dressings slathered throughout.

The dish’s name? The turducken.

Madden’s friends call him a “fork man,” which is a kind way of saying the guy can crush some food. Once DelGiorno assured him the turducken was real, Madden was all-in. So that’s how Mistich and his family found themselves walking into the Superdome that day.

Mistich wasn’t a sports fan, but he knew Madden, who was then at the peak of his powers. He had become the voice of football, earning more per year than any NFL player, and he had emerged as a video game visionary and an A-list product endorser. If Jake from State Farm had been around in 1996, chances are he’d have been talking insurance rates with Madden instead of Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes.

It’s impossible to overestimate the impact that food had on Madden’s rise. He and Pat Summerall did 22 straight Thanksgiving broadcasts starting in 1981, and Madden’s everyman appeal came through via food more than anywhere else. In 1989, Madden presented his first Turkey Leg Award to the best player from that year’s game, Reggie White. The next year, he handed one to Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith and made an offhand comment that he wished he had a six-legged turkey so the Cowboys linemen could get in on the action.

Enter Joe Pat Fieseler, a barbecue owner in Texas. He invented a six-legged turkey soon after, and Madden started handing them out the next year. When he announced his All-Madden team at the end of every season, Madden also made sure food was a theme of the show — his favorite players were often big, forgotten linemen with big appetites, so he thought the perfect all-star awards should be meat and gravy, not trophies and plaques. He had become America’s fork man.

In the days before the 1996 game, Mistich went through the complicated turducken process with his own hands. This one had to be perfect.

On the day of the game, Mistich cooked the turducken — having spent the previous few days deboning all three birds, cooking the dressings and then intricately sewing the birds together. He packed up the family and met DelGiorno outside the stadium. As Mistich shuffled to the gate with the steaming dish, his stomach felt like a turducken that had been sewn too tight.

Mistich’s meat place, The Gourmet Butcher Block, was doing quite well — he sold around 200 turduckens per year off a menu of about 25 items. He couldn’t help but smile as he looked at how giddy his kids were to get to go into the Superdome and meet John Madden. Seeing them like that gave him a brief feeling of calm, that everything would be fine even if Madden didn’t like the turducken.

But the group hit a snag: The Mistich crew didn’t have credentials, and even when DelGiorno showed his placard and vouched for them, a security guard shook his head and pointed at Mistich’s hands.

“Is that food?” he asked.

“Yes,” Mistich said.

“Sorry, no outside food whatsoever,” the guard said.

DelGiorno tried to jump in. “I’ve been broadcasting these games for years, and this is for John Madden.”

The guard was insistent. “No exceptions.”

Mistich exchanged a resigned look with his wife, and they began to think maybe they’d be eating this turducken themselves.

“Hold on,” DelGiorno said, and he pestered the security guard to call his boss. DelGiorno was persuasive and persistent, and eventually the guard relented. A minute later, the security guard came over and apologized as he waved them through.

The turducken had entered the building.


THE ORIGIN STORY of the turducken is a lot like the turducken itself: a little bit of information, packed inside some controversy, bundled up in folklore.

Let’s start with the basics everybody can agree on. Cajun chef Paul Prudhomme patented the word and recipe in 1986, although Louisiana brothers Junior and Sammy Hebert dispute Prudhomme’s claim. They say they invented the meat product when a customer came in and asked whether they could put together a chicken inside of a duck inside of a turkey. All three probably deserve a heaping helping of credit for the turducken.

By the time Mistich got a job at one of the Hebert meat shops in the early 1990s — he was dating Sammy’s sister Leah at the time — lots of places were making turduckens. The dish had a nice cult following in Louisiana but wasn’t well-known outside the state. Mistich might not have invented the dish, but on that day in 1996, he played an indisputable role in launching the turducken into the national consciousness.

His big plan back then had been to build up a nice business and hand it off to his kids someday. Mistich says his own father was in and out of his life as a child, frequently berating him when he was around. Mistich dropped out of high school and bought a commercial fishing boat, hoping to catch his father’s eye by pursuing the same profession. But the relationship kept deteriorating, and Mistich eventually quit fishing and went to work with Leah and her brother at his shop.

Mistich’s grandfather, who went by Nean, had been a meat man, traveling up and down the Mississippi River 100 years earlier in a wooden carriage with no refrigeration. Nean, a first-generation Croatian immigrant, would sell as much as he could for a few hours, then hand out the rest for free on his way home for the night. Mistich thought about that when he fell in love with working at the butcher shop — maybe there wasn’t much of a connection between him and his dad, but he felt it with his grandfather every day.

From his first day at the butcher shop until now, Mistich has always had a special knack for the careful process of making a turducken. He is a complex contradiction when it comes to the birds. He is, on one hand, an avid meat eater who owns a butcher shop. And, on the other, he’s a churchgoing avid hunter who believes in conservation and killing only what you plan to eat. He often says a thankful prayer to the chicken, duck and turkey before he gets to work on a turducken.

And it’s hard work. Mistich is tough on his turducken crew, demanding a library-like backroom where the turduckens are assembled. He wants no bird to go to waste. “When we’re training people, I encourage them to not talk, to concentrate 100% on the birds,” he says.

These days, Mistich doesn’t do turduckens one at a time. He has a two-day process for making them in large lots of up to 150. First, he and his crew debone the birds. They’ll meticulously debone 150 chickens, put them in giant buckets that go in the industrial-sized fridges. Then 150 ducks, then 150 turkeys. The Usain Bolts of his butcher shop can do three birds in a little under five minutes — a chicken in 45 seconds, then two minutes each for the duck and turkey.

At the same time, another crew is mixing and cooking the two different dressings. One is sausage-based, and the other has a cornbread base. For 150 turduckens, they’ll brew massive tubs of dressing (337 pounds of sausage, 150 pounds of cornbread), then cook everything on the stove for about 10 hours. At the end of the day, they take the pots off the stove and move them to the refrigerator to cool overnight.

Day 2 is assembly time. Mistich usually chips in himself to put the dishes together. Very few things in life bother him like a badly put together turducken, or a bird falling on the floor or going missing. It’s a regular occurrence for the whole gang to walk around at the end of the day perplexed at how they’re missing a duck or seem to have an extra chicken. “Once in a while, somebody — including me — will mess up the count,” Mistich says. “But you’re talking about 450 birds, so that’s bound to happen.”

Mistich starts with a turkey, flattened out on the table. Then he plops down a glob of sausage dressing, which is smoothed out into a thin layer. Next, he lays out the duck, followed by another layer of sausage dressing, then the chicken and a glob of cornbread dressing.

Now comes the hardest part, bundling it all up. Before the final step, the turducken looks like a layered cake of meat and dressing. But in one sudden motion, Mistich powers up both sides of the turkey to swallow everything inside. The turkey has to be stretched just right, not too tight and not too loose, and then Mistich zips thread through it like he’s lacing up sneakers. He makes 5-10 incisions across the top of the turkey, using about 3 feet of thread per turducken, then ties it together at the end.

He sells about 5,000 turduckens per year, half in the shop and half through shipping. The mail-order birds go in the freezer, and you can get one within a week or so for $200. Every turducken weighs about 17 pounds and feeds 30 or so people.

Before cooking, each one has to thaw in the fridge for 4-5 days, then roast for four hours at 350 degrees. The aroma from the oven spreads out like a warm meat blanket across the house, the potent smell of Thanksgiving turkey times three. The dressing and meat juices crackle like the three birds are in the oven fighting each other. Once the thread is removed after they come out of the oven, the birds hold together quite well, even after slicing.

At first glance, a cooked turducken looks like too much. Layer after layer of seasoned meat, rolled up like a ring cake, with dressing oozing out everywhere. The tasting experience isn’t as heavy as you might think. If you love meat, the turducken is a carnivorous gift. If you’re the kind of person who eats burgers but a double cheeseburger is a little too much, the turducken ain’t for you.

Mistich now offers close to 100 items on his menu, but none means more to him than a turducken. That’s why he is tough on trainees. He requires new turducken makers to watch about 100 assemblies before they’re allowed to make one themselves. If he hears too much chitchat, he morphs into a shushing librarian. He has seen many workers tap out on turduckens, including one legendary guy years ago who worked at the shop for a week then disappeared. “We found his apron out in the field behind the shop,” he says. “Making turduckens isn’t for everybody.”


AS MISTICH LUGGED the turducken into an elevator and upstairs toward Madden’s booth, he felt brutal butterflies start to fire up in his stomach. He couldn’t believe this was really happening. DelGiorno assured him that Madden would love it, but he made no promises, and Mistich tried not to set any expectations. He kept looking at the kids and trying to remember they’d all be fine no matter what Madden thought of his cooking.

For the Madden meeting, Mistich assembled the dish the night before, then got up early to cook it. It took about an hour to get the turducken over to the stadium, past the hesitant security crew and into the waiting area outside Madden’s booth.

DelGiorno went in to grab Madden, and Mistich and his family nervously waited. When he sensed they were coming out, Mistich peeled off the foil and stood with his dish unveiled, like a “Price Is Right” model showing off an expensive wristwatch.

DelGiorno emerged first, with the Hall of Fame coach trailing behind. DelGiorno peeled off to the side, and Madden stepped forward. “You should have seen John’s face,” DelGiorno says with a laugh. “He was in love.”

It was as if Madden had just met a long-lost sibling. DelGiorno had warned Mistich beforehand that it would be a very brief visit, that he’d have to say hello and scoot so that Madden could continue prepping for the broadcast. But Madden was gleaming, peppering Mistich with questions about the turducken and commenting repeatedly about the smell. “It’s delicious,” he kept saying. Finally, somebody from Madden’s team reminded him they had a game to broadcast.

Mistich asked Madden whether Leah could take a quick photo of them with the turducken, and two of his kids jumped in beside their dad. Then he shook hands with Madden, and the Mistich gang headed for the exits before Madden actually took a bite of the turducken.

DelGiorno walked the Mistich family to the elevator and promised to get up with Glenn later to let him know what Madden thought. They both were whispering about how excited Madden had seemed. DelGiorno said goodbye and went back in to find Madden and the whole Fox crew gathered around the turducken. It was an unwritten rule that Madden got to eat first, but the realization had hit that there were no utensils or napkins.

After a good 30 seconds of people scouring the booth and coming up empty, Madden couldn’t take it anymore. He dug his hands into the turducken, ripping chunks off and eating them as the bemused crew laughed and asked him how it was. “I love it,” Madden said between mouthfuls. “I absolutely love it.”

Madden was dripping dressing and chunks of meat everywhere when Saints owner Tom Benson unexpectedly stuck his head into the booth. Madden knew Benson, but the two weren’t close. Benson strode over to Madden and extended his hand, clearly unaware of the fork-manning that had been happening before he walked in.

Crew members’ eyes bulged out of their heads as they saw Madden make the split-second decision whether to decline the handshake or go for it. Madden licked his three middle fingers, 1-2-3, and shook Benson’s hand before Benson could pull it back. “That’s the last time Tom Benson ever spoke to me,” Madden said later.

Toward the end of the first half, Madden mentioned that he was still eating Thanksgiving leftovers but that he had been introduced a new dish. Now he wanted to announce it to about 10 million viewers. “The triducken!” he said.

As the broadcast headed toward a break for the two-minute warning, Madden was swooning so much over the entrée that Summerall jumped in and said, “Are you OK, John?”

When the camera returned, a producer was holding a turducken that looked like a pack of utensil-less wolves had worked it over for a couple of days. Madden towered above the pan, waving his enormous hands above, as he launched into the kind of breakdown he usually reserved for trap plays and fire zone blitzes. Madden’s charm was always that the actual transcript of his analysis often read like a kindergarten teacher explaining how to spell cat to a class of 6-year-olds, but his exuberance and passion came through in his voice so that it never felt as if he was talking down to his audience. When something was important for John Madden to say, it felt important for you to hear.

“Here’s my turducken,” he said, correcting himself from earlier. “It’s turkey — you got the turkey on the outside. Then you stuff the turkey with the duck, then you stuff the duck with the chicken. ‘Tur’ for turkey. ‘Duck’ for duck. And ‘-en’ for chicken. Then you just mix it all up. I’ve been eating it all day.”

Madden turned around then to return to the game, and Summerall laughed because Madden wasn’t done. “You can’t beat that,” he said. “That’s good eating. That’s a turducken. It’s turkey, it’s duck and it’s chicken. All boneless. All stuffed into each other.”

“It just sounds cruel to me,” Summerall said with a laugh.

Right before the camera turned back to the game itself, a total clunker between the 2-10 Saints and 3-9 Rams, the camera caught Madden as he fired another chunk of turducken into his mouth.

Then the fork man’s eating hand drifted toward his lips and … boom, he licked his three middle fingers, 1-2-3.

DelGiorno would call Mistich the next day to tell him how much Madden loved the turducken, but by then the whole world knew.

“We weren’t expecting what happened next,” DelGiorno says. “Glenn’s business — his whole life, really — would never be the same.”


BY THE END of the game, a crew member or two had tried a bite of the turducken, to positive reviews. But most members of Team Madden had figured out right away to steer clear of the big man’s new favorite meal. When the game was over, Madden took what was left back to his hotel with him and ate it the next day. He had found a food soulmate.

Mistich had watched the game in disbelief. He’d just heard his pride and joy dish on the air, from America’s most prominent sports personality.

Mistich started to daydream about a huge influx of orders, but even so he underestimated the surge that actually came. That holiday season, Mistich went from 200 per year to 2,500 turduckens in a few weeks, and he and his small staff had to work around the clock to make those. When Madden named the turducken as the official food of the All-Madden team, and mentioned it on Fox’s Super Bowl broadcast that year, Mistich had incredible momentum.

Requests continued to flood in through the beginning of 1998, so Mistich eventually had to hire full-time, year-round turducken makers as orders increased to 6,000 the next year. He mastered a freezing and mailing process to fill the hundreds of turducken orders to ship all over the United States — including a few to Madden’s California home.

Madden is 85 and doesn’t do many interviews anymore. He loves the turducken to this day, his friends say, and the turducken loves him back. He included the turducken in every Thanksgiving game until his retirement in 2009. He often mentioned Mistich specifically, constantly juicing Mistich’s business and local legend status. Eventually Merriam-Webster had no choice but to officially add the word to the dictionary.

Mistich gets wistful thinking about what Madden has meant to his business and his life. Since 1996, about 40% of all of Mistich’s sales have been turduckens, most directly attributable to the glowing remarks of John Madden. Mistich recently sat for interviews for the upcoming Fox documentary on the coach, “All Madden,” and can’t wait to watch it when it debuts on Christmas Day.

Mistich tried a few times to tell Madden how thankful he was, and the Hall of Famer always waved him off. “You make an unbelievable product,” Madden would tell him.

Sales were strong enough over the next decade that Mistich regularly thought about expanding. He wondered whether he could spread The Gourmet Butcher Block all over Louisiana, and then the South, and then maybe the whole country.

But every time his brain got grandiose, Mistich would look on the wall of his store, at the photo Leah took of him with his two kids flanked by DelGiorno and Madden. He’d gone to the Superdome that day as a struggling young business owner, trying to figure out how to be married with three kids while carrying the baggage of his own father’s failings. “I try to be happy for what I have right in front of me, right now — not what I could have,” he says.

Mistich had made something amazing out of his life, eventually making peace with his dying father a few years ago. “My dad wasn’t the reflective type,” Mistich says. “So we had to just kind of leave it at, ‘It is what it is.’ But that helped me move on with my life. I didn’t need him to tell me he was proud of me. I was proud of myself, and that was enough.”

These days, Mistich, 59, is working his butt off with a more modest goal: He wants to retire someday soon and hand the keys to his son, Chazz, the little boy in the photo who came to Glenn after high school and said he wanted to learn everything he could about the meat business. Chazz is a 28-year-old dad now and works as the day-to-day manager at The Gourmet Butcher Block.

But even when Chazz takes over, there’s one task Mistich thinks he might do from now until the end of time. He has mailed Madden a turducken every year since 1996. It’s always special to box it up, put it in the freezer and send it to California.

Last Christmas, a package arrived at the Mistich house. It was a thank-you note from Madden and his wife, Virginia. Mistich couldn’t believe it — Madden was thanking him? “I think about John a lot, and I always get emotional,” Mistich says. “I quit school in the 10th grade, and here I am today.”

Mistich pauses for a second, then he laughs. He has never actually seen Madden eat a turducken, so he has to use his imagination of the legend devouring his dish on Thanksgiving. “John changed my life,” Mistich says. “The least I can do is send him a turducken every year.”

And just to be on the safe side, Mistich always includes a fork and some napkins.

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Football lifer Rich Bisaccia tasked with leading Las Vegas Raiders through choppy waters

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LAS VEGAS — The stark darkness gave way to a bright Bronx winter as 9-year-old Rich Bisaccia emerged from the stadium tunnel in search of his seat. In front of him, what he had only seen on TV, or heard about on the radio or through second-hand conversations, that famed Yankee Stadium frieze and surrounding buildings. Below, more than 100 yards of a brownish green expanse lined as a football field.

Bisaccia was attending his first NFL game with his favorite team, the New York Giants, playing host to the St. Louis Cardinals on Dec. 7, 1969, and the future football lifer was excited to get a real-life glimpse of his hero, Giants quarterback Fran Tarkenton.

“I swore I was Fran Tarkenton growing up,” Bisaccia said.

Born in nearby Yonkers, New York, Bisaccia had recently moved with his family to New Fairfield, Connecticut, after the passing of a grandmother and family matriarch. But his Giants fandom, passed down by his father, Nick, had only grown.

“My dad was the head football coach of the New York Giants,” Bisaccia said at his initial news conference on Oct. 13 as the Las Vegas Raiders‘ interim coach. “He just never told anybody.”

Reporters and fans alike scurried to Google, Wikipedia, anything to confirm Bisaccia’s Giants bloodline. It was a joke. Nick was such a fan, the younger Bisaccia said, he thought he knew more than the likes of Allie Sherman, Alex Webster or Bill Arnsparger.

Thing was, upon Bisaccia’s elevation with the Raiders in the wake of Jon Gruden’s resignation amid his email scandal on Oct. 11, the hunt was also on to find out more about Bisaccia himself.

So, yeah, there was intrigue, especially after the Raiders won a pair of blowout games against the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles in his first two contests running the Raiders to make the team 5-2 going into their bye. Then receiver Henry Ruggs III was involved in a fiery car crash early in the morning on Nov. 3 that killed a woman and her dog and fellow first-rounder Damon Arnette, an oft-injured cornerback, was released Nov. 8 after a video of him brandishing guns and making death threats surfaced online.

Las Vegas has not won a game since and the whispers are now not only about the future of Bisaccia with the Raiders, but also those of general manager Mike Mayock and quarterback Derek Carr.

Three consecutive losses — to those Giants, Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to drop Las Vegas’ record to 5-5 — have added difficulty to Bisaccia’s task, one that’s already unprecedented due to Gruden’s abrupt midseason resignation and the releases of Ruggs and Arnette since taking the job. But as the Raiders get set to play at the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS), Bisaccia remains perhaps the organization’s most interesting man … especially since so little is known about him.

“I’ve got five sisters,” he allowed. “I’ve got four kids. Five grandkids.

“I owe my life to football.”

Dedicated to the craft

At 61 years old, Bisaccia is a head coach for the first time at any level in a career that began in 1983.

Not a particularly good student — by his own admission — he earned a scholarship to tiny Yankton College (yes, former Raider Lyle Alzado’s school) in South Dakota and played well enough for his coach there, Pete Chapman, to earn a tryout with the USFL’s Philadelphia Stars as a defensive back. He did not make the team. But Chapman, who was moving from Yankton — now a minimum-security federal prison — to Wayne State College in Nebraska, brought Bisaccia with him to join his staff.

And he was off.

Bisaccia finished his Bachelor of Arts degree while coaching for Chapman and at Joe Namath’s summer camps and, after four years at Wayne State, a friend he had made coaching at different camps came calling.

Charlie Weis, the former Notre Dame head coach who won a Super Bowl as offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots, was at South Carolina and in charge of hiring graduate assistants and Bisaccia was at the top of his list in 1988.

“He was newly married, had his first kid but coach [Joe] Morrison didn’t want his [graduate assistants] to be married or have kids,” Weis said. “He wanted his G.A.s to be grunts. So, as a couple of Northeast kids, we got it done.”

Bisaccia had to act like he was separated from his wife, Jeanne, and live in the dorms to get and keep the gig.

“For him to go to that length, that showed his dedication,” Weis said.

Eventually, Morrison caught wind of their plan.

“Coach Morrison got a kick out of it,” Weis said.

Morrison died of a heart attack on Feb. 5, 1989, and Sparky Woods was hired as Gamecocks coach. Woods retained Bisaccia as a volunteer assistant who coached defensive ends, tight ends, running backs and special teams through 1993.

“A warm personality,” Woods, who is now a senior advisor at North Carolina, said of Bisaccia. “It didn’t take long to realize he had a passion for the players. Neat family. His wife is awesome. It didn’t take long to hire him.

“He was an excellent recruiter. A good listener. No problem being accountable. He never tried to bring attention to himself. He had a family and he needed a job but he never complained. He needed to make a living and I didn’t want to lose him.”

But he did.

A former fellow staffer at South Carolina, Tommy West, was named the head coach at Clemson in 1994. Guess who was at the top of his list?

“Rich is driven, self-motivated,” said West, now the defensive line coach at Middle Tennessee State. “He can go as high as he wants to go. In coach-speak, Rich is brutally honest. He was the guy you were going to run something by. Just don’t ask him if you don’t want to know.”

West recalled running a play by Bisaccia.

“Coach, that’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard of,” Bisaccia told him.

“I didn’t think it was that crazy,” West replied.

“That’s terrible,” was Bisaccia’s response.

“He’d say he couldn’t wait to see me play, that everybody in the stadium was there to see me. Even though everybody is not there to see me play, it made me feel that they were all coming to watch me.”

Former NFL running back Deuce McAllister, on Rich Bisaccia’s motivational techniques

Bisaccia’s journey through the Deep South then took him to Ole Miss in 1999, when David Cutcliffe saw what he called a “rare passion for coaching” and developing relationships with players.

“There’s no bigger fool in coaching than one who thinks they can fool a player,” said Cutcliffe, who is now the coach at Duke. “He’s going to light it up every now and then but not without them knowing that he respects them and the work they’ve put in.”

Case in point: It was Ole Miss’ homecoming game in 2000 against UNLV, which had forced overtime on the final play of regulation. Running back Deuce McAllister sat out regulation with a left high ankle sprain but when OT began, he told Bisaccia, his position coach as well as special teams coordinator, he would play. Bisaccia recognized the moment and trusted his player.

“I pulled rank,” McAllister, now a radio analyst for the Saints, laughed as he recalled converting a pair of third downs in OT before going over the top of the pile for the game-winning 1-yard touchdown.

McAllister said Bisaccia used to leave motivational notes in his locker before games.

“He’d say he couldn’t wait to see me play, that everybody in the stadium was there to see me,” McAllister said. “Even though everybody is not there to see me play, it made me feel that they were all coming to watch me.”

Said Cutcliffe: “That story speaks volumes for who Rich is. It’s time to think about players, not plays, and Rich was great for Deuce McAllister. I find myself saying it all the time — you get on a grease board, or a chalkboard before, and you want to draw up a winner. But you don’t just draw up a punt-block scheme; you have to have a punt blocker. You have to find him.”

‘Is he a great coach? Hell yeah’

With former NFL head coaches on the Raiders staff in defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, offensive line coach Tom Cable and defensive line coach Rod Marinelli, Bisaccia seemed a quizzical pick to replace Gruden.

Until you looked at the résumé.

Bisaccia, who carried the title of associate head coach and as the special teams coordinator, is well known by players on both sides of the ball.

“The irony is, I’ve endorsed him for a lot of head coaching jobs over the years, both in college and the NFL, back when I had a different job,” Mayock said. “He’s got as much respect in the locker room, in our locker room, as any coach I’ve ever seen in my life and the reason he does — is he a great coach? Hell yeah. But he’s an even better man and what I’ve always told people when I endorse him is that he’s the most natural leader of men that I have ever been around.

“Rich Bisaccia is the best leader I have ever been around. … I’m going to back this son of a gun unequivocally.”

Bradley remains in control of the defense while offensive coordinator Greg Olson took over playcalling duties from Gruden. Bisaccia? He’s still running special teams but he also refers to himself as an “in-game manager” inspired by John Robinson, the former Los Angeles Rams, USC and UNLV coach.

“I’m a Raider, too, just like him,” Robinson, who was on John Madden’s staff in 1975 as an offensive backfield coach, said of Bisaccia.

“As an in-game manager, I did not call plays. I advised and yelled at the coordinators when things didn’t go right; I tried to stay involved in the game. So, I was the manager of the game, how many timeouts we had. The playcaller can’t do that — maybe some guys can do everything — the playcaller has to have somebody else remind them, ‘Hey, there’s 12 seconds on the clock.’ Whatever that process is. I always tried to focus on that and look at our teams in terms of who’s tired. The intangibles that go into a game. That’s an important part of the game.”

Robinson said Bisaccia’s history as a special teams coach should help in his current role.

“They are prepared for the total game probably more than any other coach because they see the game more in that regard,” said Robinson, now an offensive consultant at LSU. “I’ve always believed the special teams coach has got a sense of what the total game is.”

And during that initial two-game winning streak, it was palpable in the Raiders locker room.

“Oh, yeah, we love him,” Carr said. “If you find someone that doesn’t like him, they probably didn’t do right. They probably didn’t work hard. They probably weren’t a good teammate, and things like that. If you just do right, you’ll love that man. And I think a lot of it has to do with just who he is as a person, how he believes. He’s the same every day so you know exactly what you are going to get. As a player that’s all you can ask for, especially in this league.”

Running back Josh Jacobs laughed when recalling how different things were in Denver with Bisaccia at the helm when compared to Gruden.

“Man, the sideline was just so, it was like, it wasn’t no anxiety,” Jacobs said. “It was weird. It was like everybody was calm, you didn’t have somebody cussing at you, or going crazy at the refs, you know what I’m saying? None of that. It was just like, ‘OK, something bad happened?’ [Bisaccia] was like, ‘OK, I’m not harping on you. All right, next play. Next play.’

“I was like, ‘That’s the right type of energy we needed.’ I love it.”

Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue overlapped the pointer and middle fingers on his right hand.

“Me and coach are like this,” Ngakoue said. “We have similar views on a lot of things, about how we go about our work. It starts in practice. The way he has practice set up and structured, I just feel like it’s super effective in getting guys ready for Sundays.

“Do your job, be on time and you’ll be on his good side. I love coach, man.”

‘He deserves this opportunity’

Bisaccia was beckoned by the NFL in 2002.

Or, more specifically, by Gruden, who had been traded from the Raiders to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and needed a special teams coordinator.

Gruden’s first coaching job was as a G.A. at Tennessee in 1986. Cutcliffe coached the Volunteers’ tight ends at the time, so Gruden had an in.

“I had to tell [Gruden] the truth,” Cutcliffe said. “It was very difficult for me because part of the things people don’t understand about the industry is how hard it is to trade even or trade up with coaches. I knew we couldn’t trade even with Rich Bisaccia. Our relationship went beyond just the coaching. I was close to his family, the father. There’s more to this than X’s and O’s. Nobody was more aligned with what we were trying to do at Ole Miss than Rich.

“I knew I’d lose him to professional football. He deserves this opportunity. He’s ready. And he has been. It’s been far too long that he hasn’t been given a chance at a Power 5 school or in the National Football League.”

Bisaccia was a part of the Buccaneers staff that took apart the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII and Bisaccia takes a special pride in his father being in San Diego that day to “watch his son win a Super Bowl.”

He remained in Tampa Bay with Gruden and his successor, Raheem Morris, through 2010. Even as an old friend called.

“When I got the job at Notre Dame [in 2005], I tried to get him to be the associate head coach and special teams,” said Weis, now a SiriusXM NFL radio analyst. “I got close, but at the time he was in pretty good shape. And college doesn’t pay as well as the NFL.”

Bisaccia later joined Norv Turner with the Chargers in 2011 and 2012 and Jason Garrett with the Cowboys from 2013 to 2017 before reuniting with Gruden in 2018, all the while burnishing a reputation as one of the best special teams coaches in the NFL.

‘I just think we are all trying to learn’

Both of Bisaccia’s parents are gone now, as are the first two coaches for whom he worked in Morrison and Chapman, who died of cancer in 2003.

“I’m 61 years old and so I’d like to think along the lines you gain some wisdom, and you gain some experience,” Bisaccia said. “You go through things, whether it’s with family that I grew up with or I have my own [family] now, and then being around a lot of players.

“It’s a combination of maybe all those things — age, wisdom and with age comes experience that’s both positive and negative and you’d like to think you learn from them. And you’d like to think you can improve and keep moving forward, and I think that’s probably the message we try to give our players.

“I try to do it with my own kids. I got a kid that is one of those wildland firefighters and so he goes through a bunch of different experiences than I do and so I learn from him and the things he’s had to go through and some of that. So, I just think we are all trying to learn.”

Kind of like stepping out of the darkness and into the light like that winter day in the Bronx back in 1969.

ESPN New Orleans Saints reporter Mike Triplett contributed to this report.

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NFL Thanksgiving Day games – Schedule guide, picks, fantasy football tips, odds, injuries and more

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The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2021 season begins with three Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and, of course, final score picks.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football insight as well. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded afternoon of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Thanksgiving Day slate, including an NFC North matchup between the Bears and Lions and an offensive duel between the Raiders and Cowboys. The football-packed holiday culminates with a battle between two teams currently on the playoff fringe, the Bills and Saints. Who will take another step closer to the postseason with a win on Thursday?

Jump to a matchup:
CHI-DET | LV-DAL | BUF-NO

See more:
History of Thanksgiving in the NFL
John Madden’s first turducken
Every team’s most memorable Thanksgiving

12:30 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating:
6.8 | Spread: CHI -3.5 (41.5)

What to watch for: The Lions are still in search of their first victory of the season under first-year coach Dan Campbell, and they’ll be the 13th team in NFL history to enter a Thanksgiving game with a winless record. Detroit will look to feed the hot hand, with running back D’Andre Swift leading all running backs in receptions (53) and sitting second in receiving yards (420). Swift also ranks fifth among all running backs with 975 scrimmage yards. Can the Bears slow him down and find their own offense with quarterback Andy Dalton? — Eric Woodyard

Bold prediction: Dalton will pass for three touchdowns as the Bears snap their five-game losing streak. Justin Fields is dealing with a rib injury, but Dalton has the experience to handle the quick turnaround, and he’s still good enough — Dalton threw for two touchdowns against the Ravens — to get the job done against inferior teams. Fields (when healthy) is still Chicago’s starting quarterback, but look for Dalton to light it up on Thursday. — Jeff Dickerson

Stat to know: The Bears blitzed the Ravens on 28 of 44 dropbacks last week (64%), the highest blitz rate by a team in a game this season and the highest blitz rate by the Bears in any game since ESPN began tracking it in 2006.

Injuries: Bears | Lions

What to know for fantasy: Chicago receiver Darnell Mooney saw 16 targets last week with Allen Robinson II sidelined and now ranks in the top 20 in air yards this season, ahead of elite deep-ball options such as Mike Williams and DK Metcalf. See Week 12 rankings.

Betting nugget: Seven of the past eight Detroit games have gone under the total. Read more.

Dickerson’s pick: Bears 24, Lions 17
Woodyard’s pick: Lions 21, Bears 20
FPI prediction: CHI, 64.0% (by an average of 4.8 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: On Thanksgiving in 1997, Detroit running back Barry Sanders rushed for 167 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears in a 55-20 win for the Lions. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Nagy says he’s focused on Lions, not job status after report


4:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
54.7 | Spread: DAL -7.5 (51)

What to watch for: Can the Cowboys finally handle an AFC West defense? They scored 20 points against the Chargers, 16 against the Broncos and nine against the Chiefs. Denver and Kansas City were physical with the Cowboys on the perimeter, which helped them generate pressure against an offensive line that did not have left tackle Tyron Smith. But Smith is expected to play against the Raiders, and the Las Vegas defense is tied for 26th in points allowed (26.2). The Cowboys’ offense must answer the call, despite not having WR Amari Cooper and possibly CeeDee Lamb. — Todd Archer

Bold prediction: Dallas pass-rushing terror Micah Parsons — along with the Raiders’ red zone issues — will force Las Vegas to use backup quarterback Marcus Mariota on more than the occasional third-and-short and fourth-and-short situations. Mariota is much more mobile than Derek Carr. Parsons has 5.5 of his eight sacks in the Cowboys’ past three games, and Carr has been in a three-game, post-bye funk. The Raiders need a spark. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: Raiders tight end Darren Waller now has 12 career 100-yard games, the third most by any tight end since he made his debut in 2015 (Travis Kelce has 27, and Rob Gronkowski has 14).

Injuries: Raiders | Cowboys

What to know for fantasy: Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has been held out of the end zone in four of his past five games and doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 11 yards in four straight. See Week 12 rankings.

play

1:36

Stephania Bell and Matthew Berry examine the Cowboys’ wide receiver situation if CeeDee Lamb isn’t cleared for Thursday.

Betting nugget: Dallas is 1-9 against the spread (ATS) in its past 10 Thanksgiving games. Read more.

Gutierrez’s pick: Cowboys 27, Raiders 16
Archer’s pick: Cowboys 26, Raiders 19
FPI prediction: DAL, 75.0% (by an average of 9.1 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1993, Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett inexplicably tried to recover a blocked game-winning field goal attempt from the Dolphins. The ball was booted forward by Lett and recovered by Miami at the 2-yard line. Dolphins kicker Pete Stoyanovich connected on the following field goal to win the game 16-14 for Miami. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Football lifer Bisaccia’s journey to becoming the Raiders’ interim coachNo longer playing Xbox, Cowboys’ Parsons a nightmare for quarterbacks


8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating:
82.1 | Spread: BUF -5.5 (46)

What to watch for: There might not be any NFL playoff contenders in more desperate need of bounce-back performances than these two teams. The Saints have lost three straight for the first time since 2016 and need to get running back Alvin Kamara and their offensive tackles back from injury as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Bills MVP candidate QB Josh Allen has battled turnovers while Buffalo has lost two of its past three and fell out of first place in the AFC East. — Mike Triplett

Bold prediction: Saints quarterback Trevor Siemian will throw at least two interceptions and complete less than 60% of his passes. He threw two interceptions in the loss to the Eagles last week and is averaging a 56.9% completion percentage on the season. The Bills’ defense is ripe for a comeback game and has 15 interceptions on the season, tied for the second most in the NFL. Buffalo has also allowed opposing passers to complete just 57.7% of passes (lowest in the league). The Saints might be without Kamara and multiple other offensive players due to injuries, including tight end Adam Trautman, setting up the Bills’ No. 1 pass defense for success. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills entered Week 11 allowing the fewest points per game (15.0) and gave up 41 to the Colts. The Saints, meanwhile, entered last week ranked No. 1 in run defense (72.9 rushing yards allowed per game) before giving up 242 to the Eagles. Which defense will bounce back in Week 12?

Injuries: Bills | Saints

What to know for fantasy: Bills receiver Stefon Diggs has scored five times in his past five games after scoring just once in his first five this season. He was WR2 over the final eight weeks of last season and appears to be rounding into form at the right time. See Week 12 rankings.

Betting nugget: New Orleans is 3-0 outright and 2-1 ATS in Thanksgiving games under coach Sean Payton with covers in its past two appearances (2018 and 2019). Read more.

Getzenberg’s pick: Bills 27, Saints 20
Triplett’s pick: Bills 23, Saints 22
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.7% (by an average of 4.0 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 2019, the Saints clinched the NFC South title on Thanksgiving with a win against the Falcons. Backup quarterback Taysom Hill blocked a punt and scored two touchdowns (one receiving, one rushing) in New Orleans’ 26-18 victory. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Bills have little room left for error after disappointing loss to ColtsSaints’ playoff hopes on the ropes heading into Thanksgiving matchup with BillsSources: Saints TE Trautman to miss 4-6 weeks with MCL sprain

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