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NBA playoffs 2021 – What’s real and what’s not in Round 1?

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All eight NBA playoffs first-round matchups are set — and the quest to 16 wins can now officially begin.

The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in a unique position as the betting favorite in their series against the Phoenix Suns while being the No. 7 seed. The Brooklyn Nets are the favorites to emerge from the East but face the challenge of their three stars — Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving — having played only eight games together in the regular season. Meanwhile, should the top-seeded Philadelphia 76ers and Utah Jazz be concerned about their first-round matchups against the Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies who employ game-changing guards such as Bradley Beal and Ja Morant?

Our experts take a look at what to believe in for the opening round. From Michael Porter Jr. picking up the scoring load for a depleted Denver Nuggets roster to Jimmy Butler reawakening the offensive excellence that propelled the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals last season, we’re sorting out what’s real and what’s not in Round 1 of the NBA playoffs.

Round 1 matchups | Experts’ picks | What to know for playoffs


Real or not: The switch-flipping Lakers

The Lakers were flat-out awful in the first half of their win over the Warriors for the No. 7 seed Wednesday. In the second half they found their way, forcing 15 turnovers with their top-rated defense, sending a variety of looks at Stephen Curry and putting the clamps on the Warriors’ supporting cast.

A noticeable difference, yes. Maybe even a flipped switch, if you will. But the biggest issue for the Lakers in their quest to repeat as champions might be health, not effort.

The Lakers showed a ton of character and mental toughness in maintaining their top-rated defense while Anthony Davis and LeBron James were out with injuries. Think about that. Their defense was better while one of the best defenders in the league was out. That’s not a knock on Davis. It’s a compliment to guys like Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma. Because without James and Davis, defense was the Lakers’ best way to win. It was the bedrock of last year’s championship team and will have to be again if the Lakers can play their way through the Western Conference from play-in game qualification.

That defense has been there all year. They didn’t need to flip any switches. But they still need to reincorporate James and Davis, and they absolutely need both to be healthy.

— Ramona Shelburne

Real or not: A long first-round series will benefit Brooklyn

Not real. While no team with their top three scorers having played fewer than 10 games together has gone on to win a championship, the Brooklyn Nets wouldn’t necessarily benefit from a longer series against the Boston Celtics in hopes of building chemistry among their stars.

Why? Because the Nets had a tendency in the regular season to struggle against teams below their level, including the Celtics. Kevin Durant has said they can’t afford to view Boston as an inferior team that will be an easy out. Instead, he said the group has to treat the Celtics with the respect of knowing “we can be beat if we don’t lock in.”

Looking at the Celtics as a team they can afford to stretch into a long series could be dangerous for the Nets — and they know it. “We understand that we haven’t played a lot of games together,” Durant added. “But we have been on the court together in practices, we have been around each other in the training facility, on the bus, on the plane. So if we can’t get on the floor, we’ve been trying to fill in the blanks with other stuff as far as watching film, communication, just talking out what we see amongst each other.”

— Malika Andrews

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Stephen A. Smith explains why he’s not a fan of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s comments about the Bucks’ chances in the postseason.

Real or not: This sizzling Heat offense

On March 14, the Miami Heat had the NBA’s sixth-worst offense. I don’t care how good your defense is — or about the strength of your vaunted culture — you are going nowhere in the postseason with an offense that bad.

Since that day — a stretch encompassing almost half the regular season — Miami ranks 10th in points per possession. From April 1 to the end — two dozen games — it ranked fifth. If that’s real, if the Heat are pulling this same “coalesce at the right moment” trick for the second straight season, they are absolutely a threat to send the Milwaukee Bucks spiraling into existentialism again.

I’m inclined to believe it’s at least real-ish — that the Heat are a good offense, though not a great one. They have scored 113.3 points per 100 possessions with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Duncan Robinson on the floor, equivalent to the Boston Celtics’ 10th-ranked offense. After uneven seasons, both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro seem to be cresting; Dragic hit 44-of-108 (41%) on 3s in April and May, and Herro averaged 16.7 points on 54% shooting over his final six regular-season games after returning from injury.

Miami got peak versions of both in its run to the Finals in the bubble; the Dragic-Adebayo pick-and-roll was one of the Heat’s most consistent weapons, and Herro helped swing several games with his scoring.

Going from Jae Crowder to Trevor Ariza is a downgrade — Crowder scorched Milwaukee last season — but Ariza has hit 35% from deep on decent volume in Miami. Kendrick Nunn had an under-the-radar, solid season. Dewayne Dedmon stabilized the bench.

The Heat are rock-solid on defense, and as well coached as any team. They don’t need to be elite on offense to push Milwaukee. They just need to be good. They are underdogs — they should be — but they have a real chance at an upset.

— Zach Lowe


Before Jamal Murray‘s untimely ACL tear on April 12, the Denver Nuggets seemed to have found a strong offensive hierarchy with MVP favorite Nikola Jokic as their first option on offense, Murray as No. 2 and Michael Porter Jr. as their third option.

Murray’s absence, compounded by the subsequent loss of fourth-leading scorer Will Barton to a hamstring strain, created an opportunity for Porter. He has taken full advantage, averaging 23.5 points per game since Murray went down — more than the 21.2 PPG Murray was scoring.

But Porter’s efficiency is more impressive yet. Despite increasing his usage rate from 21% of the Nuggets’ plays to 23.5%, Porter has made 63% of his 2-point attempts and 49% of his 3s over the past month-plus. Only his free throw shooting (85%) has prevented Porter from being in the 50-40-90 club over that span.

Based on his skilled shooting at 6-foot-10 with a lanky frame, Porter has long been compared to 2013-14 MVP Kevin Durant. Their scoring stats since April 12 are strikingly similar:

Almost certainly Porter can’t stay this hot. Even Durant had never surpassed 42% 3-point shooting in a season before hitting 45% playing just 35 games this year. However, nobody who watched Porter as a top-rated prep sensation is surprised by what he’s doing. Porter’s talent was obvious before back surgery marred his lone season at Missouri and caused him to tumble to 14th in the 2018 draft.

Denver had the guts to wait out a second back surgery that cost Porter the entire 2018-19 season. Now he’s a key reason the Nuggets might be able to win a playoff series or two without Murray.

— Kevin Pelton


Real or not: Joel Embiid as the single biggest mismatch in Round 1

Sort of. Embiid is a mismatch against virtually any center, with exceptions for Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert, two of the few who can go toe-to-toe with him. No disrespect to Washington’s troika of pivots — Alex Len, Robin Lopez and Daniel Gafford — but none of them can do anything against Embiid, who was arguably the NBA’s most dominant and best two-way player this season. He should lead Philadelphia to a comfortable first-round victory.

So, why is the answer sort of? Because there are a few other matchups across the league that could prove equally decisive in determining how the series plays out. Ironically, one involves Jokic’s Denver Nuggets and how they’ll attempt to stop the Portland Trail Blazers‘ dynamic backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

Denver’s backcourt entering this series is the equivalent of bringing a fork to a gunfight. The Nuggets are without Jamal Murray, after he tore his ACL earlier this season. Beyond that, Denver will also be without starting shooting guard Will Barton (hamstring strain) and reserve guard PJ Dozier (adductor strain) for Game 1, and likely beyond it. Austin Rivers, whom they signed recently to fill in as depth, could also be out as he’s questionable for Saturday’s game with a non-COVID-19 illness.

No team might be better suited to take advantage of Denver’s ills than Portland, which has a pair of bona fide clutch stars in Lillard and McCollum — both of whom have had huge postseason moments, including against the Nuggets in an epic Western Conference semifinal that went seven games in 2019. The talent gap at guard could allow this matchup to go the distance again this year — and could allow the Trail Blazers to get the same outcome.

— Tim Bontemps

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Jason Hart to become new head coach for G League Ignite

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The G League Ignite is finalizing a deal with USC associate head coach Jason Hart as the program’s new head coach, sources tell ESPN.

Hart, a nine-year NBA veteran, takes over an NBA-run program that produced two of the top of the picks in Thursday’s NBA draft — forwards Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.

Hart, 43, replaces Brian Shaw, who is joining the LA Clippers as their top assistant.

The G League Ignite has been signing top American and international prospects to play with and against G League veterans to prepare them for entry into the NBA draft. The Ignite are based in California, but are expected to play a more traditional G League schedule this year after participating in the G League bubble in Orlando last year.

Hart has been at USC since 2013, including the past four as associate head coach. He was a second-round NBA draft pick in 2000 after leaving Syracuse as the school’s all-time leader in steals and second in assistants.

As a USC assistant, he worked with several NBA players, including Atlanta’s Onyeka Okongwu, DeAnthony Melton and Chimezie Metu.

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NBA draft 2021 — How to watch, trade talks, the latest mock draft and all the insider intel

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The 2021 NBA draft has finally arrived! Who’s rising? Who’s falling? Will the Detroit Pistons take Oklahoma State star Cade Cunningham at No. 1? Is Cunningham more Khris Middleton … or Luka Doncic? Where will USC big man Evan Mobley get selected? Will the Oklahoma City Thunder begin to spend its considerable draft capital? Who is this year’s Draymond Green or Nikola Jokic? What last-minute offer could turn every draft board upside down? (Could happen!)

So many questions. So many answers to come.

Here is everything you need to know, from how to watch the draft-night festivities to the full draft order, from scouting reports of all the top prospects and their likely landing spots to the latest intel, trade rumors, analysis and projections. Our experts will reveal the draft’s most NBA-ready prospects, as well as the players with the highest ceilings and highest bust factors.

All the action is set to go down at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Thursday night at 8 p.m. ET. Watch on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+.

Bookmark this page: Get live coverage of the NBA draft, including pick-by-pick analysis, here.

How to watch the 2021 NBA draft

Who are the top NBA draft prospects?

This class features a four-player top tier that includes 6-foot-8 point guard Cade Cunningham, G League Ignite shooting guard Jalen Green, USC center Evan Mobley and Gonzaga star Jalen Suggs.

Rounding out the top 10, per Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz’s top 100 prospects:

  • Jonathan Kuminga | PF | G League Ignite

  • Scottie Barnes | F | Florida State

  • Davion Mitchell | PG | Baylor

  • James Bouknight | SG | UConn

  • Keon Johnson | SG | Tennessee

  • Franz Wagner | SF | Michigan

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Where are the top NBA draft prospects expected to land?

Cunningham spent Monday and Tuesday in Detroit, per Givony, and, though it was a light workout, the former Cowboys star did nothing to diminish his standing within the Pistons organization.

Get the latest intel in Givony’s mock draft, which will be continuously updated until the start of the draft.

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What are the big NBA trades to watch?

On Monday, NBA trade season officially began, with a deal that will send Memphis center Jonas Valanciunas and the 17th pick in this year’s draft to New Orleans in exchange for Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe and two future first-rounds picks, including the 10th pick on Thursday.

Kevin Pelton grades the trade here.

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As expected, NBA’s play-in tournament will return at least one more season with same format

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The NBA’s play-in tournament is back for at least one more season.

As expected, the league’s board of governors gave approval Tuesday to the plan that would bring back the event in April 2022. The format will be the same as it was this past season: The teams that finish seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th in each conference will play to determine the No. 7 and No. 8 playoff seeds.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver had said on multiple occasions in recent weeks that he expected the play-in to return. It was utilized this past season for the first time on an experimental basis.

In other board of governors news Tuesday:

SCHEDULE

The play-in tournament being back crystallizes the schedule for next season. It was already known that training camps would open Sept. 28 and the regular season on Oct. 19. With the play-in, that now means the regular season ends April 10, 2022.

The play-in tournament will be April 12-15, the playoffs will begin April 16, and the 2022 NBA Finals are scheduled to begin June 2 — back in their customary spot for the first time since 2019.

The latest possible date for Game 7 of the NBA Finals would be June 19, and the 2022 NBA Draft is slated for June 23.

Teams have been working under the assumption of that schedule for several weeks.

ROSTERS

Two-way players will receive half of the minimum salary next season, or roughly $463,000. They will be permitted to be active for 50 games next season.

Teams can have 15 players active for each game next season, with no more than 17 under contract.

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